A strategic realignment is urgently needed. While political battles consume attention on the periphery, Al-Shabaab is consolidating its grip at the core threatening the very foundations of the Somali state.
This commentary examines Al-Shabaab’s strategic advances during its June–July 2025 offensive, the political fragmentation undermining counter-insurgency efforts, and the pressing need for a unified national response. It argues that a reactive, military-first posture without parallel political reconciliation and a unified national army under a single command is ultimately unsustainable.
The reality in the central regions is grim. Al-Shabaab is no longer limited to hit-and-run attacks; it is capturing key towns, rapidly retaking lost ground, and holding territory. This sustained pressure has deeply eroded the morale and operational capacity of government forces and allied clan militias, who have suffered heavy casualties. The timing of this offensive is no coincidence it is designed to exploit the political fragility fueled by disputes over the electoral model and constitutional reform. Al-Shabaab is adeptly leveraging local grievances and clan divisions to entrench itself, while the withdrawal of state forces from critical areas signals a deteriorating security environment.
Yet as this existential threat grows, the government’s primary military focus appears misaligned. The deployment of significant forces to Gedo and the clashes in Dhahar suggest a divided gaze and a neglect of the heartland. These engagements are perceived not as acts in the national interest, but as expressions of the short-term political ambitions of rival elites.
This disunity is a critical vulnerability. Ongoing infighting and the lack of coordination between the Federal Government and Member States have created fertile ground for the insurgency to advance. Every soldier and every resource diverted to peripheral political conflicts is a resource unavailable to resist Al-Shabaab march toward major population centers. The nation’s lifeblood is being squandered on political theater while community defense forces in Shabelle and Hiraan regions are left to fight for their very survival.
The Way Forward
Persisting with a disjointed, reactive military strategy is untenable. Somalia leaders face a stark choice: continue chasing narrow political interests while the heartland burns or come together with strategic clarity to confront the one threat that could unravel the entire nation.
The recent fall of Maxaas after more than a decade of government control should serve as a clarion call. Federal and state forces must forge a united front and place national survival above factional rivalry. Resources drained by political posturing must be redirected to support the community-led forces now bearing the brunt of the fighting in Hiraan and the Shabelle corridor.
Without swift and responsible action, there will soon be nothing left to govern or contest. The time for political maneuvering has passed. The time to act is now.
Author
Mohamed Abdi is a researcher at Amni, specializing in conflict dynamics, security policy, and peacebuilding in Somalia.