Decoding Shabelle Offensive

Understanding Al-Shabaab’s Recent Gains and Strategic Intentions

In February 2025, Al-Shabaab launched a bold offensive across Hiiraan, Middle Shabelle, and Lower Shabelle, capturing 19 strategic locations and pressuring Mogadishu. The group disrupted supply routes and forced Somali National Army (SNA) withdrawals, exploiting political instability and weak defenses. Despite Federal Government of Somalia (FGS) countermeasures, including over 80 airstrikes and international support, Al-Shabaab retains control of some areas.

The report examines whether the offensive signals enduring strength, a strategic shift toward urban warfare, or a desperate final push. It critically evaluates each narrative, debunking exaggerated claims and highlighting Al-Shabaab operational limits, internal strains, and the improving capabilities of the government. FGS's reactive approach and failure to consolidate gains allow Al-Shabaab to regroup. Politically, the offensive has sown panic and exposed FGS vulnerabilities.

Recommendations

• Plan offensives with phased consolidation, deploy civilian stabilization teams, and build intelligence-driven defenses to counter suicide attacks.
• Address internal divisions, strengthen coordination, and counter Al-Shabaab’s psychological warfare to maintain public trust, secure and hold territory, not just capture it, to break Al-Shabaab’s cycle of resurgence and prevent a manufactured crisis in Mogadishu

Download the Full Report Decoding Shabelle Offensive Report