The Kismayo communiqué has established a critical pivot point for Somalia. With a deadline of January 20, 2026, the Federal Government has a final opportunity to preempt political collapse and the threat of parallel governance. By institutionalizing a national reconciliation dialogue, the leadership can secure the path toward the May 2026 elections and safeguard Somali sovereignty against an intensifying "triple threat" of insurgency, geopolitical interference, and internal fragmentation.
Now or Never
The Kismayo communiqué of December 20, 2025, represents more than a list of opposition grievances; it is a critical strategic opening for the Federal Government of Somalia to arrest the nation’s slide toward administrative fragmentation. This moment demands that the federal leadership move beyond defensive posturing and swiftly convene a structured national reconciliation dialogue, preferably hosted in a state capital as a meaningful confidence-building gesture.
To be effective, this dialogue must be convened no later than January 20, 2026 a date that marks the closing of the window for a negotiated settlement before the electoral calendar consumes the political space. As the communiqué indicated, the risk of parallel elections or a parallel government is high, a scenario that serves no one's interest and threatens the very fabric of the state.
For this dialogue to move beyond the superficiality of past "handshake" agreements, the primary objective must be the resolution of accumulated grievances, the restoration of functional working relationships, and the settlement of critical governance and security challenges. To ensure broad political buy-in and mitigate the risk of future contestation, key opposition figures and former national leaders should be consulted either at the outset or prior to the finalization of any pact.
To prevent the reversal of any reached agreements, the process must be anchored in constitutional legitimacy. Federal and state parliamentary leadership must formally oversee the negotiations, with every outcome immediately ratified into law. This institutionalization is the only safeguard against the "personalized governance" that has historically undermined Somali state-building.
The immediate outcomes must be specific and time-bound, focusing on a clear division of federal and state mandates, a renewed national security architecture, the establishment of permanent arbitration mechanisms, and a defined action plan for institutional reform. Most critically, the process must produce an agreement on a federal and remaining three state election model and timeline.
The urgency of this reconciliation is dictated by a triple threat that leaves no room for political procrastination: the imminent security challenge of Al-Shabaab, the intensifying pressure of external geopolitical interests, and an internal fragmentation that invites foreign interference. A unified domestic front is no longer a choice but a prerequisite for defending Somali sovereignty.
The period between now and May 2026 will serve as the ultimate litmus test for the Republic. The leadership must now choose between consolidating a viable federal state or allowing the window of opportunity to close, risking a return to the fractured governance of the past. National interest must now supersede individual political survival to deliver a stable, unified path toward the 2026 elections.
Authors: Mohamed Hussein, MD and Ahmed Hassan CED